Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.476145 1.541431 1.609236 1.685144 1.768032 1.856116 1.957222
2026-02-01 1.389823 1.475730 1.567850 1.674639 1.795882 1.930317 2.092172
2026-02-08 1.325088 1.424163 1.532934 1.662397 1.813921 1.987794 2.205686
2026-02-15 1.271793 1.380083 1.501231 1.648573 1.825474 2.034554 2.306087
2026-02-22 1.237259 1.354273 1.487441 1.652669 1.855878 2.103028 2.435664
2026-03-01 1.187602 1.307858 1.446385 1.620753 1.839018 2.110231 2.485413
2026-03-08 1.148860 1.272251 1.415983 1.599337 1.832705 2.128721 2.549423
2026-03-15 1.118070 1.244602 1.393544 1.585972 1.834849 2.156971 2.627343
2026-03-22 1.106993 1.239951 1.398440 1.606396 1.880741 2.244976 2.795812
2026-03-29 1.100536 1.240359 1.409144 1.634113 1.937035 2.350146 2.999175
2026-04-05 1.079343 1.221648 1.394931 1.628443 1.947462 2.391045 3.107983
2026-04-12 1.062207 1.207308 1.385530 1.628352 1.965010 2.442578 3.237917
2026-04-19 1.032052 1.176267 1.354412 1.598905 1.941242 2.433517 3.270580
2026-04-26 1.012539 1.158083 1.339181 1.590074 1.945907 2.466836 3.377734
2026-05-03 0.993426 1.139815 1.323166 1.579362 1.947028 2.494349 3.477273
2026-05-10 0.974741 1.121558 1.306540 1.567031 1.944930 2.516293 3.568734
2026-05-17 0.963642 1.112694 1.301879 1.570894 1.966536 2.576766 3.738872
2026-05-24 0.940222 1.087285 1.274537 1.541923 1.937516 2.553046 3.742904
2026-05-31 0.921507 1.067615 1.254375 1.522448 1.922003 2.550567 3.788938
2026-06-07 0.906412 1.052346 1.239719 1.510282 1.917018 2.565161 3.871308
2026-06-14 0.903572 1.053046 1.246514 1.528927 1.960218 2.664165 4.145586
2026-06-21 0.903241 1.056975 1.257696 1.554190 2.014938 2.787606 4.498486
2026-06-28 0.892096 1.046235 1.248429 1.549032 2.020663 2.823658 4.654772